What is the “mystery” of Ephesians 3?

What is the “mystery” of Ephesians 3?

What is the “mystery” about which Paul speaks in Ephesians ch. 3? One can quickly think of several answers which, at first blush, seem promising. However, like poor Hosea’s wife, they soon prove faithless.

Background

Paul has written about God’s plan to reconcile all things to Christ, in heaven and on earth (Eph 1:10). To that end, he’s spoken about God’s grace in salvation, the impossible situation from which he rescued us, our responsibility as grateful believers, and about this new Jesus community he has formed in which Jews and Gentiles “are no longer strangers and sojourners, but you are fellow citizens with the saints, and are of God’s household” (Eph 2:19). This is all part of God’s plan to remake the Genesis 1-2 paradise, which he achieves in Revelation 21-22. Through his covenants, God has made several sacred promises:

  1. To gather a people to himself physically descended from Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.
  2. To place these people into a promised land of their own.
  3. To make his people, Israel, a blessing to all the families of the earth.
  4. To give them a king descended from David who will rule forever and whose kingdom will never end, and
  5. To give them a Messiah as a new and better covenant who will give his people new hearts and new minds by a miracle of his Spirit.

Amidst the chaos of national collapse and apostasy, the prophets explain that this Messiah will nevertheless re-gather a remnant of the Israelite people from the four corners of the earth because of his covenant promises. He will usher in a golden age wherein righteousness, truth, justice, peace, and bliss will prevail. The Messiah will rule from Jerusalem as a signal flag of salvation to the nations, who will stream to Yahweh with joy in those days. In short, the prophets say these covenant promises will come to fruition in the millennium, which functions as a version in miniature, a microcosm, or prototype of the eternal paradise to which the story transitions by Revelation 21-22 (see esp. Jer 33:14-26; Micah 4:1-8; Zech 8; Isa 11-12, Isa 25).[1]

Back in Ephesians 3:1-12, Paul writes about a mystery which God has revealed to him:

… which in other generations was not made known to the sons of men, as it was now revealed to His holy apostles and prophets in the Spirit: that the Gentiles are fellow heirs and fellow members of the body, and fellow partakers of the promise in Christ Jesus through the gospel (Ephesians 3:5-6; emphasis added).

So, somehow, this “mystery” news about Gentiles being “fellow heirs” of the Jesus promise is something new—a new thing in the unfolding of God’s great plan. Well, what’s new about what Paul says? What, exactly, is this mystery? Based on what Ephesians 3:5-6 says, several possible answers come to mind. We may dismiss some straightaway, while others are a bit stronger.

Wrong answers about this “mystery”

  1. Nobody ever heard of this before!

With apologies to traditional dispensationalists, we can dismiss this immediately. This perspective sees a great discontinuity between the people of Israel and the church; one has an earthly future with earthly covenant promises, while the latter is a heavenly people.[2] I don’t believe this is the best way to frame the two groups in God’s plan. God tells Abraham that, in him, all the families of the earth will be blessed (Gen 12:3), and the apostle Paul cites this as warrant for the revelation of the church (Gal 3:8). The bible is clear that Gentiles have a future in God’s family.

  1. Wow! The nations are part of God’s plan!

This is closely related to the last perspective, and it is the response of the Jewish Christians at Jerusalem. Consider the apostle Peter’s prejudicial and foolish comments to Cornelius—remarks with no biblical support: “You yourselves know how unlawful it is for a man who is a Jew to associate with a foreigner or to visit him …” (Acts 10:28). Reflect, also, on the indignant reception the Jewish Christians in Jerusalem give Peter when he returns home (Acts 11:1-3, 18). They would have never responded this way if they had listened to Yahweh’s words in Isaiah 56:6-8. This passage says that foreigners may “take hold of My covenant,” and Yahweh promises to bring these believing Gentiles to his holy mountain “and make them glad in My house of prayer” (Isa 56:6-7). “‘For My house will be called a house of prayer for all the peoples.’ Lord Yahweh, who gathers the banished of Israel, declares, ‘Yet others I will gather to them, to those already gathered’” (Isa 56:7-8).

The nations have obviously always been part of God’s plan.

  1. Gentiles aren’t at the back of the bus in God’s family—they’re equal!

This is a common view. One advocate writes: “God’s blessing of the Gentiles would involve the obliteration of the old line of demarcation which separated them from Jews, and the incorporation of Gentile believers together with Jewish believers, without any discrimination, in the new, comprehensive community of God’s chosen people.”[3] But, is this truly new news? Has this never been heard before? What about old covenant texts that clearly say this will happen—like Isaiah 56:6-8? What about Isaiah’s prophesy that, during the millennial age, “Yahweh of hosts will prepare a lavish banquet for all peoples on this mountain” (Isa 25:6)? What about his promise through Jeremiah: “the nations will be blessed in Him, And in Him they will boast” (Jer 4:2)?

Some bible teachers respond by leaning into texts that seem to suggest the nations are subservient to the people of Israel during what I believe to be Christ’s millennial reign,[4] and therefore Paul’s “mystery” here is a different thing entirely—it’s been taken to the next level.

But, study shows these passages are often depicting Israel’s triumph over her enemies (e.g., Mic 4:13) or, in the important case of Isaiah 60, it is Zion (not the people of Israel) whom the nations will serve (as metonymy for Yahweh). The Old Covenant scriptures clearly promise that all who are thirsty may come to the waters “without money and without cost,” that Yahweh has given the Messiah “as a witness to the peoples,” and declares this Rescuer will “call a nation you do not know” which “will run to you” (see Isa 55:1-7).

  1. The Messiah will do this!

This one is clearly absurd. Yes, Paul does say in Ephesians 3:5-6 that this “mystery” (whatever it may be) concerns the promise about Christ Jesus. But, the Old Testament very clearly says the Messiah will be the one who saves and rescues Jews and Gentiles (see Isa 42:1, 6-7). It was known. It was expected. This cannot be the mystery.

  1. Israel is replaced by the church!

This is a very common interpretation.[5] I cannot properly rebut that perspective here. I’ll just say that (a) if God gives us the covenant oaths and signs so that we’d have faith in his promises, then (b) this requires God to mean what he says, to speak clearly so we can understand him, so we therefore rely upon his promises.[6]

Mary and Zechariah, to take one example, surely understood Yahweh to mean what he said in his covenant promises through David about a king rescue them from their enemies and usher in righteousness (Lk 1). If God didn’t mean what he said through the prophet Nathan (1 Chr 17:1-15) and didn’t expect his people to understand and rely upon that covenant promise, then Gabriel wouldn’t have had any basis for a conversation with Mary! Instead, he assumes and expects that she knows what he’s talking about.

  1. A better relationship with God by spiritual union!

This, also, does not work. The prophet Joel said that, in the last days (which Peter says have now arrived), God will pour out his spirit upon all mankind (Joel 2:28-29). Ezekiel said that, in the new covenant, God “will give them one heart and give within them a new spirit. And I will take the heart of stone out of their flesh and give them a heart of flesh” (Ezek 11:19).

A probable answer

So, if the Old Testament clearly says each of these things, then what precisely is the “mystery”? It seems to me that the mystery is not about what will happen, but about how.[7] Yes, by the end of the whole story in Revelation 21-22, there will be one people of God consisting of two groups (Israel and the church) which have been made one. But, how will God make this promise a reality?

It seems that Jesus makes God’s covenant promises come true in two stages. First, by using the church now, during this present evil age. Second, during his 1,000-year millennium reign, by using the people of Israel (see esp. Jer 33:14-26; Micah 4:1-8; Zech 8; Isa 11-12, Isa 25). The apostle Paul’s analogy of the olive tree seems unanswerable along this line (Rom 11:17-36): God has broken off the “natural branches” (i.e., the people of Israel) from this tree now, and meanwhile grafted in “wild” and unnatural branches (the Gentiles) for a time.

For I do not want you, brothers, to be uninformed of this mystery—so that you will not be wise in your own estimation—that a partial hardening has happened to Israel until the fullness of the Gentiles has come in; and so all Israel will be saved; just as it is written, “THE DELIVERER WILL COME FROM ZION, HE WILL REMOVE UNGODLINESS FROM JACOB” (Romans 11:25-26).

Regarding how the whole bible story comes together, the apostle Peter tells us the prophets themselves had questions about the “how.”

… the prophets, who prophesied of the grace that would come to you, made careful searches and inquiries, inquiring to know what time or what kind of time the Spirit of Christ within them was indicating as He was predicting the sufferings of Christ and the glories to follow” (1 Pet 1:10-11).

I like to compare this issue to disagreements about eschatology today. Every true Christian believes that, one day, Jesus will return to punish the wicked, reward the righteous, defeat Satan forever, and bring in everlasting righteousness. But, we sometimes disagree about the precise details. The “how” questions about the Messiah’s advent were like that—of course he would arrive, but how would all the details about “the glories to follow” shake out?

Therefore, regarding Paul and the revelation of the “mystery” about Jews and Gentiles as “fellow heirs and fellow members of the body, and fellow partakers of the promise in Christ Jesus through the gospel” (Eph 3:6), the best answer seems to be about the how, and not the what. “Messianic days have dawned, albeit in a way not clearly anticipated in the prophesies. Rather than one grand age of fulfillment under the messianic reign, the prophetic fulfillment has been divided into two ages related to the two comings of Christ.”[8]


[1] Eugene Merrill, “A Theology of the Pentateuch,” in A Biblical Theology of the Old Testament, ed. Roy B. Zuck (Chicago: Moody, 1991), 27.

[2] Lewis S. Chafer is representative of this school (Systematic Theology (reprint; Grand Rapids: Kregel, 1976), 4:74-77). “The distinction between the purpose for Israel and the purpose for the Church is about as important as that which exists between the two Testaments. Every covenant, promise, and provision for Israel is earthly, and they continue as a nation with the earth when it is created new. Every covenant or promise for the Church is for a heavenly reality, and she continues in heavenly citizenship when the heavens are recreated” (Systematic, 4:47).

[3] F.F. Bruce, The Epistles to the Colossians, to Philemon, and to the Ephesians, in NICNT (Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1984), 314.

[4] See Thomas Schreiner, The Letter to the Ephesians (Grand Rapids: Baker, 2026), 152, for a list of passages. Lynn Cohick declares: “ … while the theme of gentile inclusion is found throughout Second Temple literature, Paul’s emphasis on the equal status of gentiles with Jews in the community is not obvious in these works, nor in the Old Testament itself” (The Letter to the Ephesians (Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 2020), 320). This is clearly incorrect.

[5] One representative example is John Stott, The Message of Ephesians (Downer’s Grove: IVP, 1979), 117-18.

[6] See especially Paul Henebury, The Words of the Covenant, vol. 1 (Maitland: Xulon, 2021), 13-52.

[7] I’m especially indebted to Robert Saucy, “The Church as the Mystery of God,” in Dispensationalism, Israel, and the Church, ed. Craig Blaising and Darryl Bock (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1992), 137-51. 

[8] Saucy, “Mystery of God,” in Dispensationalism, Israel, and the Church, 151.

Understanding Daniel’s 70 “Weeks” Prophecy (pt. 2)

Understanding Daniel’s 70 “Weeks” Prophecy (pt. 2)

We continue our look at the great prophecy of Daniel 9:24-27. Read the rest of the series.

Now we come to the fun part of this prophecy. Some of the details from the sweeping vision of Daniel 9:24 will now be spelled out. Daniel wants to know when God will bring his people back from exile and restore his kingdom that has fallen. So, Gabriel gives him God’s answer:

So you are to know and understand that from the issuing of a decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem, until Messiah the Prince, there will be seven weeks and sixty-two weeks; it will be built again, with streets and moat, even in times of distress (Daniel 9:25).

There are two big events in Daniel 9:25: (a) the decree “to restore and rebuild Jerusalem,” and (b) Messiah the prince’s arrival on the scene. Fair enough. But there is controversy about how to translate this passage. I mention this because your bible translation may differ from the NASB (2020) which I’m using in this article.

  • Option 1 suggests (a) Messiah’s arrival = seven “sevens,” and (b) Jerusalem’s re-building = 62 “sevens”—a total of 69 “sevens” (ESV; also RSV, NEB, REB, CEB, NRSV).
  • Option 2 says (a) Messiah’s arrival, and (b) the rebuilding of Jerusalem = 69 “sevens.” The specific timeframes of each are undefined (NASB; also NLT, NET, KJV, NIV, CSB).

You can see the difference in these two examples:

Figure 1. Translation differences at Daniel 9:25.

Many good Christians are on each side of this translation issue.[1] Regardless, it’s clear that by the end of the 69 “sevens” Messiah will have arrived on the scene, and Jerusalem will have been re-built. In Daniel’s day, Jerusalem lies in ruins (Lam 5:17-18). Although Daniel couldn’t have known this at the time, bible history tells us that first the exiles returned and rebuilt the city and its temple, and then Messiah arrived on the scene in the opening pages of the New Covenant scriptures. So, it’s best to understand these events as being keyed to the two time-periods, so the 69 “sevens” shake out like this:[2]

At the end of these 69 “sevens” (more on that in a minute), both these events will have happened.

Or have they?

Some otherwise solid bible teachers say that Jerusalem’s “rebuilding” is really about the “spiritual kingdom” of God advancing in the world.[3] This unlikely. There’s no good reason to dismiss the straightforward interpretation that Jerusalem means Jerusalem here—Daniel is talking about the actual city being truly rebuilt.

Of course, that’s exactly what happened. The city and its walls and its temple were rebuilt, “even in times of distress” (Dan 9:25)—just as Gabriel said it would be. Later, in Nehemiah 4:11, the bible tells us about these troublesome times as they tried to re-build the city in the years after Ezra led people back to Israel: “And our enemies said, ‘They will not know or see until we come among them, kill them, and put a stop to the work.’”

What are the “sevens”?

The word your bible may translate as “weeks” means “sevens” (שִׁבְעִ֜ים), which is a vague time marker that context must explain. Sometimes it means years (Dan 9:3). Sometimes it doesn’t. This “sevens” business is weird—why does God communicate to Daniel this way?

The simplest explanation is that God is riffing off the “70 years (שִׁבְעִ֜ים) of captivity before I bring you back to the promised land” thing which promoted Daniel to pray in the first place (see Dan 9:2; cp. Jer 25:11-12, 29:10). That is, God is basically saying:[4]

  • “Yes, Daniel, you’re right—70 “sevens” (שִׁבְעִ֜ים) will elapse before I start to bring y’all back to the promised land.”
  • “But, 70 other “sevens” (שִׁבְעִ֜ים) will elapse before I really, truly fix the root problem.”

And it’s the end of these 70 “sevens” that brings us to paradise in the better tomorrow (Rev 20:21-22).

So, what are the 70 “sevens” from our prophecy in Daniel 9:24-27? We should interpret the bible plainly unless there is reason not to do so. Again, the word your bible may translate as “weeks” means “sevens” (שִׁבְעִ֜ים), which is a vague time marker that context must explain. There are 70 “sevens” or “units of [something]” in this entire prophecy (Dan 9:24). Here are four common options:

  • 70 sets of days (70 days).
  • 70 sets of years (70 years).
  • 70 sets of seven years (490 years).
  • 70 symbolic numbers that have no literal sense of time.

How do we know how to understand these “sevens?”[5] The clearest measure is the 69 “sevens” that elapse from (a) the order to rebuild Jerusalem, until (b) the anointed one (“Messiah”) arrives. However long this time is, it equals 69 “sevens.” So, if we figure out this time-period, we can figure out what a “seven” is. You must first determine the date of one of these two events—the beginning point is the decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem, and the end point is Messiah’s arrival.

  • Don’t start at the beginning! Many bible teachers (and students!) drown in dates and charts at this point because they try to first determine the date of the decree to rebuild Jerusalem. This is not a good place to start. There are at least four plausible options in the old covenant scriptures, and it all becomes very complicated.
  • So, if there is an easier option to figure this out, we ought to take it and run with it.
  • Fortunately, there is a better option. It’s simpler to begin with the end point (the arrival of Messiah, the prince/ruler) and then work backwards.
  • This date is easier—there is comparatively little debate among bible-believing interpreters about the date of Jesus’ arrival on the scene.

So, we will take the best date(s) for the beginning of Jesus’ ministry (i.e., his “arrival”)[6] and work the 69 “sevens” backwards from there, using each of the four possible “ways” to understand the “sevens” (above). Here is how we do it:[7]

  • I interpret Jesus’ arrival (“until Messiah the Prince”) as his baptism, when his ministry formally kicks off (Mk 1:9-13). If you try to use Christmas as his arrival, no calculation makes any sense at all. So, the baptism it is.
  • It’s very likely the Romans crucified Jesus in April of A.D. 30. Some say A.D. 33. I assume A.D. 30 in the calculations that follow.[8]
  • By counting the number of Sabbaths mentioned during Jesus’ ministry, we determine his ministry probably lasted about 3.5 years.[9]
  • This would put Jesus’ arrival on the scene (his baptism) as late A.D. 26 (i.e., April, A.D. 30 minus 3.5 years = October-ish, A.D. 26).
  • We can now count backward using the various “69 units of something” options to figure out the most likely solution.

There are 69 “units of something” from the decree to rebuild Jerusalem until A.D. 26, when the Messiah who is a prince/leader/ruler arrives.

  1. Option 1—A.D. 26 minus 69 units of days (69 days). This would put the decree to rebuild Jerusalem at 69 days before Jesus’ baptism at Mark 1:10-11. This option clearly doesn’t work. The city was rebuilt long before this point!
  • Option 2—A.D. 26 minus 69 units of years (69 years). This would put the decree to rebuild Jerusalem as happening in 43 B.C. This isn’t true—the returning exiles rebuilt Jerusalem by at least 445 B.C. (Neh 6:15)!
  • Option 3—A.D. 26 minus 69 units of seven years each (483 years). This would put the decree to rebuild Jerusalem as happening in 457 B.C (that is, A.D. 26 minus 483 years). This option fits well with Ezra’s commission to go to Jerusalem and establish God’s community in the city, now that the temple had been built—see Ezra 7:12-26; 9:9.

The Israelite’s return from the east to the promised land didn’t happen all at once. It came in fits and starts. The issues involving these dates are complicated. I’ll use generally accepted dates from conservative sources.[10]

  • Some folks, like Esther and her family, chose not to return to the promised land at all.
  • 538-ish B.C. Many Jews returned when Cyrus, the Persian ruler, gave them money, supplies, and allowed them to return and rebuild the temple in 538 B.C. (Ezra 1-6).[11] This is a tale also told in the books of Haggai and Zechariah.
  • 457 B.C. The next wave of exiles returned to the promised land under the leadership of Ezra, the priest (Ezra 7),[12] with the blessing of the Persian ruler, Artaxerxes I.
  • 445 B.C. About twelve years after Ezra and his party left for Jerusalem to the west, Nehemiah in Persia hears a report about how the city still lies in ruins and is yet to be fully repaired: “… the wall of Jerusalem is broken down and its gates have been burned with fire” (Neh 1:3). He seeks for and receives permission from the Persian ruler, still Artaxerxes I, to go (Neh 2:1-8).

Returning to our options for dating—the only reasonable solution, if we take each “seven” to be a unit of seven years each, is to see the beginning point of the timespan from Daniel 9:25 as Artaxerxes I’s decree for Ezra to head to Jerusalem in ≈ 457 B.C. It shakes out like this:

  • The end point (“until Messiah the prince,” Dan 9:25) is Jesus’ baptism in A.D. 26.
  • 69 “units of seven years each” = 483 years.

So …

Again, this fits well with Artaxerxes I’s decree for Ezra to head to Jerusalem in ≈ 457 B.C. Nevertheless, some good Christians disagree:

  • Some good bible scholars protest that, when the Persian king gave Ezra permission to go to Jerusalem sometime after the first wave of exiles had already returned (Ezra 7:12-26), the city was already in the process of being rebuilt.[13] They claim that the first wave of exiles who returned ≈ 538 B.C. already began this work.
  • After all, the foreigners in the land wrote to the Persian king before Ezra set out, complaining that “the Jews who came up from you have come to us at Jerusalem; they are rebuilding the rebellious and evil city and are finishing the walls and repairing the foundations” (Ezra 4:12).

What shall we do with this data?

  • First, the 457 B.C. date just works. It does. It works perfectly. So, if there is a reasonable solution that lets us keep the date, we should grab hold of it.
  • Second, it is true that Artaxerxes did not specifically tell Ezra to rebuild the city. But, he did send Ezra out to organize the returned exiles into a proper community and establish religious order. Ezra was apparently to be a sort of priest/governor: “And you, Ezra, according to the wisdom of your God which is in your hand, appoint magistrates and judges so that they may judge all the people who are in the province beyond the Euphrates River, that is, all those who know the laws of your God; and you may teach anyone who is ignorant of them” (Ezra 7:25). Ezra understood that his job included rebuilding the ruined city: “to give us reviving to erect the house of our God, to restore its ruins, and to give us a wall in Judah and Jerusalem” (Ezra 9:9).
  • Third, in the mid-440s B.C. when Nehemiah arrived on the scene, the city was still in ruins. “I was inspecting the walls of Jerusalem which were broken down and its gates which had been consumed by fire (Neh 2:13). He told his companions what he’d discovered: “Jerusalem is desolate and its gates have been burned by fire” (Neh 2:17). Working like madmen amidst fierce opposition, the city walls were only fully re-built in 445 B.C. (Neh 6:15; see also Neh 3-5).
  • Fourth, Ezra’s failure to finish rebuilding the city and its walls in the ≈ 12 years before Nehemiah pulled into town doesn’t nullify the Ezra option. It just means Ezra’s time was monopolized with other matters.[14]
  • Fifth, this all suggests the foreigners who wrote that letter to the Persian ruler were lying. The first wave of returned exiles rebuilt the temple in 515 B.C. (Ezra 6:15).[15] But the city was still a mess. A wasteland. Nehemiah tells us so. The folks who wrote that letter had their own reasons—they feared the Jewish people would establish themselves back in the promised land. So, they exaggerated the Jewish people’s progress and imputed sinister motives to them (Ezra 4:13-14) so the Persian king would order a halt to the whole thing. They succeeded (Ezra 4:17-24).

So, the decree to Ezra in ≈ 457 B.C. still makes good sense, which means each “seven” = a unit of seven years. Further, God advised the Israelites that the promised land, which they had defiled, must enjoy the sabbaths the people had ignored for 70 years (2 Chr 36:21). He also warned his people that he would repay them seven-fold for their sins (Lev 25:18, 21). This seems to be the springboard for Gabriel’s 70 “sevens” in our prophecy. The 70 “sevens” of punishment in captivity times 7x for their sins = 490 years = the 70 “sevens” at Daniel 9:24.[16]

All this indicates there is no need to consider the last option for understanding the “sevens”—the symbolic one. So, we have an incredibly detailed prophecy from Daniel 500-ish years before the events occurred—down to the very month of Jesus’ baptism. Gabriel clearly tells Daniel that, 483 years from a future decree to restore and re-build Jerusalem, the city will be rebuilt in times of trouble, and the Messiah will have arrived on the stage.

More details will come in Daniel 9:26, in the next article.


[1] For example, C.F. Keil and Franz Delitzsch spend a great deal of time defending the option that the ESV translation later represented (Commentary on the Old Testament, vol. 9 (reprint; Peabody: Hendrickson, 1996), 729). But, in the end, they agree that by the end of the 69 “sevens” Messiah will have arrived and Jerusalem will have been rebuilt. So, in a sense, the translation difference does not matter—the whole thing will take 69 “sevens.” But, it begins to matter when you try to sort the two events into order.

[2] “… the true reason of the 69 weeks being divided into seven, and 62, is on account of the particular and distinct events assigned to each period …” (Gill, Exposition of the Old Testament, 6:346).

[3] Leupold, Daniel, 424-25.

[4] Moses Stuart writes: “Daniel’s meditation had been upon the seventy simple years predicted by Jeremiah. The angel tells him that a new-seventy, i.e. seventy week-years or seven times seventy years, await his people, before their final deliverer will come” (Daniel, 266; emphases in original).

[5] A brief, reasonable defense of the “seven = one unit of seven years each” and the ≈ 457 B.C. date, which I propose here, is from Gleason Archer, “Daniel,” in Expository Bible Commentary, vol. 7, ed. Frank Gaebelein (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1985), 113-16.

[6] If we reckon Messiah’s “arrival” as Christmas morning, then no option but the symbolic one works for the “sevens.”  I do not discuss this “arrival = Messiah’s birth” option here, but you ought to know it is an option. Instead, I take Messiah’s arrival to be the start of his ministry—his baptism.

[7] There are two dating calculations computed by the best bible-believing scholars: (a) the A.D. 26 date for Jesus beginning his ministry at his baptism + the A.D. 30 date for his crucifixion (≈ 3.5 years of ministry), or (b) an A.D. 30 date for the beginning of his ministry + the A.D. 33 date for his crucifixion (also ≈ 3.5 years of ministry).I believe Option A is correct, largely based on this prophecy from Daniel and because the calculations are defensible.

These calculations are extraordinarily technical. See (a) Jack Finegan, Handbook of Biblical Chronology, revised ed. (Peabody: Hendrickson, 1992), §581, §583-4; §615-20, and (b) Harold Hoehner, Chronological Aspects of the Life of Christ (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1977), ch. 3, 5.

[8] Finegan, Biblical Chronology, §629 and references therein. Finegan opts for A.D. 33, but his analysis shows A.D. 30 is also quite probable.

[9] “Three years plus a number of months” (Finegan, Biblical Chronology, §628, §600-601).

[10] An excellent overview is Leon J. Wood, A Survey of Israel’s History, rev. David O’Brien (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1986), 333-41.

[11] This happened in “the first year of Cyrus king of Persia” (Ezra 1:1), which was 539 B.C. (Jason Silverman, s.v., “Cyrus II,” in The Lexham Bible Dictionary, ed. John D. Barry et al. (Bellingham: Lexham Press, 2016)).

[12] This occurred “in the seventh year of the king” of Persia, Artaxerxes I (Ezra 7:1, 8). This was about 457 B.C. (Walter A. Elwell and Barry J. Beitzel, “Artaxerxes,” in Baker Encyclopedia of the Bible (Grand Rapids: Baker, 1988), 207).

[13] Edward Young, The Prophecy of Daniel (Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1949), 202-3; Andrew Steinmann, Daniel (St. Louis: Concordia, 2008), 462, 470.

[14] Archer, “Daniel,” in EBC, 7:114.

[15] For the 515 B.C. date, “[n]ow this temple was completed on the third day of the month Adar; it was the sixth year of the reign of King Darius” (Ezra 6:15), see Paul L. Redditt, s.v., “Temple, Zerubbabel’s,” in Lexham Bible Dictionary).

[16] Joyce G. Baldwin, Daniel, vol. 23, in Tyndale Old Testament Commentaries (Downers Grove: InterVarsity Press, 1978), 187.